Silver – Brief thoughts on its COT and Price Chart [Posted on February 21, 2015,5:39 pm by Trader Dan; www.traderdan.com]

Following is a Weekly or intermediate term chart of silver along with a few brief comments developed around its most recent Commitments of Traders report from this past Friday.

Not long ago I did a more detailed analysis of silver which can be found here at the site noting how the Swap Dealers are the one group of traders to keep a close eye upon when it comes to this particular commodity futures market. They have an uncanny knack for being on the right side of this market when it makes its move.

I normally lay great emphasis on the activity of the speculators, particularly the large hedge funds, since they are the drivers of our modern markets, but when it come to silver, once the net positioning reaches extreme levels, more often than not, the Swap Dealers are the ones positioned correctly.

With that in mind, I am closely observing what is transpiring in the silver market based on the COT positioning and the price chart.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

How low can gold and silver go? [By Dominic Frisby, from MoneyWeek 24.09.2014]

 

Source: MoneyWeek

Why silver got knocked down at 23.00

It was momentarily encouraging to see silver rally to slightly above 23.00 as the Fed keeps stimulus in place. However, it didn't stay up there for long and drifted right back to the 50dma around the 22.50 level. Perhaps flirting with the down trend line drawn in red gave the hedge funds another opportunity to short the silver market. The MACD is also rounding down so this current technical posture does not look good for the bulls. I'd like to see the red down trend line broken to the upside so that we can have some renewed buying interest and a chance at touching the 200dma at around the 24.00 level.

Silver Will Outperform: Expert [SUN 30 JUN 13 | 10:50 PM ET]--Jordan Eliseo, chief economist ABC Bullion

Jim Rogers: “Thank Goodness” For Gold’s Correction - June 17, 2013 Kitco News

"Kitco News asks Jim Rogers his take of current events like Deutsche Bank's new gold depository in Singapore and the two new Chinese ETPs. Rogers also talks about how India's Finance Minister Chidambaram repeatedly urges the public to stop buying gold, stating heavy gold imports hurt the Indian economy. Finally, Rogers says that the gold correction in April was necessary for gold to avoid an even worse crash. Despite the April sell off, Rogers is still purchasing gold (and silver)....In regards to Roubini's bearish comments on gold earlier this month, Rogers says he'll ignore those predictions." Kitco News, June 17, 2013.

Original source:

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/on-the-spot/336/2013-06-17/Jim-Rogers-8220Thank-Goodness8221-For-Gold8217s-Correction----June-17-2013

Silver Cycles: What Next? [Posted by Deviant Investor on June 10th, 2013 on www.deviantinvestor.com/]

Background

Silver prices peaked in April 2011 and dropped about 60% over the next 25 months. Sentiment by almost any measure is currently terrible. Few are interested in silver; most have lost money (on paper) if they bought in the last two and one half years, and the emotional pains seems considerable. It reminds me of the years after the NASDAQ crash in 2000.

So will silver drop under $15 or rally back above $50?

To help answer that question, I examined the chart of silver for the last 25 years and identified several long-term cycles. Then I constructed a spreadsheet that attempted to model the price of weekly silver based on those cycles and a few assumptions.

For FULL ARTICLE

Silver Market Update [originally published June 10th, 2013 by Clive Maund on clivemaund.com]

Clive Maund's latest update on silver is as follows:
"While silver is on the defensive short-term there is plenty of evidence that over the medium and longer-term it is setting up for a powerful rally. COT's and sentiment are already very bullish indeed, which means that when the turn does come, the rally is likely to be accentuated by panic short covering.
On its 6-month chart we can see how silver is being pressured lower by its falling 50-day moving average coming into play overhead, although the increasingly large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages is indicative of an oversold state that increasingly calls for reversal. Volume is still predominantly negative, suggesting lower prices dead ahead. After that we can expect reversal. There was a pronounced bull hammer in silver in the middle of May towards the intraday low of which there is quite strong support- silver may drop no longer than the low of this hammer."

Read the FULL ARTICLE

CPI ADJUSTED SILVER PRICE

Silver is still below both the 1980 nominal high of $50.00/ounce and the CPI inflation adjusted price of 1980 which is equal to $125.74/ounce.

Chart source: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/FreeGoldSilverCPI.php

60% silver correction. Would this then be the low?

Using 49.80 as the high and 19.40 as the low, that would be a 61% correction in silver. This correction then would be approximately the same depth (60.5%) as the 2008 remarkable drop. So 19.40 should provide a stout support with many traders and investors stepping in at this price. Could it go lower than this? Given the suspicious price discovery mechanism at the COMEX, I have no doubts that it could, but surely the strong physical demand from China and major central banks of the world will put a floor or limit the downside? We have to wait and see.

The other possibility is, we don't see below 20.00 and we see a turn around from here. Time will tell.

Silver & Gold - The BIG Picture - Mike Maloney

"By the way we did a study on the true price of silver coming out of the ground. It is about $20 per ounce. It varies mine to mine but that is a good all in cost for now. Mid year 2013." silver-investor.com [David Morgan]