Silver appears extremely bullish from a structural point of view, something that myself and others have been talking about the last 12-14 months. We first saw this in the vast reduction in the adjusted open interest (reference to spread positions) by about half followed by 2 monster rallies beginning in Sept 2010 and again in February 2011. From personal experience, gauging physical investment demand, paper (ETF) demand, shape of the futures curve and the Commitment of Traders report, silver will likely see a monster rally to at least the $40-$43 area before year end and possibly a breakout pushing the $50 level. In any case, Silver would be the one commodity I would want to own for the next 12-24 months.
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Saturday, October 15, 2011
Monday, October 10, 2011
Silver Market Update [originally published October 9th, 2011; Clive Maund]
It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way silver has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows.
On silver's 4-month chart it is now apparent that a bear Pennant has been forming since the panic bottom, with the weak upside volume portending an imminent breakdown and steep drop. A reader pointed out to me during last week that silver's panic lows occurred in thin trading on the Hong Kong market, and for this reason we do not have to factor in the tail of the "Dragonfly Doji" candlestick shown on the chart when deciding where to draw the boundaries of the Pennant. The measuring implications of this Pennant call for a drop at least to the vicinity of the intraday lows of the Dragonfly Doji and possibly somewhat lower towards the $24 area - at this point the decline should have completely run its course and we will be looking to buy aggressively. We can see that a bearish "Harami" pattern has formed in silver over the past 2 trading days, implying that breakdown from the Pennant and the expected steep drop that will follow is imminent. A reason why this next drop should end the decline is that silver is already deeply oversold as shown by its MACD indicator, and it will of course be even more so after this impending decline. Those interested in going long silver investments in the near future should "keep their powder dry" but stand ready to wade in big time if silver drops into the bright green "aggressive accumulation zone" shown on our chart.
Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE
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