This week saw the type of downside volatility in the precious metals market that will be remembered for years to come. For those of us who have been long gold, and silver in particular, the memories will not be pleasant. While many had been expecting a pullback in silver, when the violence did come it was nevertheless shocking. Silver shed one third of its value in less than one week. And while gold was pulled down by the general sell off in all commodities (oil, copper, coffee, etc.) the yellow metal shed only 6.5% during the carnage. Those mild losses should remind us that gold is not just another commodity, but has monetary qualities that tend to smooth out volatility. But will silver survive the vicious downturn?
Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
Silver's Dip will be Brief! [By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report May 5, 2011]
(Silver prices are in an anti-bubble!)
Silver Stock Report
Silver dipped below $36/oz. this morning, down about 8% from yesterday, and down about 27% from the high last week of about $49.50/ per troy ounce. (A Troy oz. is about 10% heavier than a the more common international avoirdupois ounce.)
Some people are saying "this is like 1980 all over again" and that silver will now crash. Nothing could be further than the truth.
Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE
I hope Turd Ferguson is right!!
Take a look at his most recent post (Cinqo de Bottomo: Thursday May 5, 2011) HERE
"How far will it drop and when do I start buying again?"
Below is the “corrections” chart by Jeff Clark (www.caseyresearch.com), which shows all major pullbacks in silver since the Silver bull market began in 2001.
-The average of all corrections is 19%.
-However, it’s generally true that the larger the rise, the bigger the subsequent pullback. Applied from a high of April 25 2011 of $49.79 and to a low of $35.71 May 05 2011 (as I write this post), it had "corrected" thus far -28.28% and could head lower.
-If we correct further to say -33.3%, we'd get a price of $33.20
-Although unlikely but not impossible, a huge -50% correction would see a price of $24.90
-The fundamental fact is that, despite the recent correction, silver is in big bull markets. Until that changes, pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Turd Furgeson's Silver Update [Wendesday May 4 2011]
"I've been getting lots of emails regarding my $65 target for silver in June. Everyone wants to know if that number is still valid after the recent drop. Frankly, its not. I came up with $65 based upon recent pattern of drops and rebounds in similar timeframes. As you know, I'd expected a pull to $45 not $40. In light if this, we have to at least lower our target to $60 if not a little lower but even that's just a guess at this time. Let's see how the next two weeks play out. Pattern suggests that the UP move as we head toward first notice day in June will begin somewhere between the 17th and 24th of May. I'll have a much better idea of what to expect by then." TF
ORIGINAL SOURCE
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Silver Bull Market Likely to Zigzag to $100 and Beyond [By Paul Mladjenovic May 03, 2011 11:15 am]
The silver market has been very interesting lately but what really rankles me is the various commentaries that have popped up from across the financial media world. It seems that as soon as silver gets near $50, all of a sudden the silver bears come out of the woodwork and even some usually bullish observers are leap-frogging over to the silver bear camp. What are silver investors and speculators to do?
First of all, as we have known for years, silver in the short term can be very volatile and abrupt pullbacks can happen. The leading culprits for recent pullbacks (which resulted on April 26 and May 2) were the moments that the futures exchange raised the margin requirements. The first time was on Monday April 25 and then again on Friday April 29 (a whopping 75% increase). For those that were long in the silver futures market those were exasperating moments. Should we be concerned or pessimistic about silver’s future?
Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE
First of all, as we have known for years, silver in the short term can be very volatile and abrupt pullbacks can happen. The leading culprits for recent pullbacks (which resulted on April 26 and May 2) were the moments that the futures exchange raised the margin requirements. The first time was on Monday April 25 and then again on Friday April 29 (a whopping 75% increase). For those that were long in the silver futures market those were exasperating moments. Should we be concerned or pessimistic about silver’s future?
Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE
And Now For Today's Mini Silver Flash Crash: Same Time, Same Place [by Tyler Durden on 03/05/2011 18:42 -0400]
www.zerohedge.com
Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land.
Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Understanding Where We are in the Silver Bull Market [By David Banister May 2 2011 11:16AM]
I expect Silver to correct to the 40 to $42.75 areas based on my Fibonacci work and Elliott Wave views, and after this 4th wave consolidation we will see a surge to as high as $60 per ounce. Any pullbacks in Silver should be bought here and same with the Silver stocks post haste. Below is my latest chart forecast on Silver:
See the FULL ARTICLE HERE
See the FULL ARTICLE HERE
Monday, May 2, 2011
Update on Turd Ferguson's latest post on his blog [tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com]
He writes..." As we discussed in the previous post, the level of significance is $46.25. IF we can get through there and begin moving back toward 47, shorts will begin to get very nervous." [see Turd's chart from his blog below]
It is encouraging to know that the current live quote for Silver as I write this post is 46.76 (10:43PM Singapore time 2 May 2011), and has taken out the 46.25 level. I hope the shorts are getting nervous.
Silver Market Update [By: Clive Maund 2 May 2011]
The big question on the minds of silver investors and especially silver traders is whether the meltup in silver has run its course, or whether it has further to go. On Monday last week we saw temporary burnout with a Reversal Day showing up on the chart at a point where silver was fantastically overbought. On the basis of this, and also the extremely bullish public opinion on silver and extremely bearish public opinion on the dollar (the public are normally wrong) it was reasonable to conclude that silver had either topped out or that a correction was imminent, and that is what we did conclude. However, the situation is now complicated by the fact that the latest COT figures reveal that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions have been dramatically scaled back just over the past week, which is not what you would expect to see ahead of a drop - what should happen is that Commercial short positions either ramp up or least remain constant. This latest COT chart by itself portends another upleg soon.
Why People are Buying Silver Now! (At $40-50/oz., it's better than all the alternatives!) By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report
-- Posted 2 May, 2011
Money in US banks stands at about $18 trillion. If 1% of that money were to be spent on silver, it would be $180,000 million. But with only 700 million new oz. of silver mined each year, that implies a price of $257/oz. for silver, which would leave no silver left over for industry or the rest of the world. Since industry and the rest of the world will need silver, too, this implies that silver prices will hit about $500 oz. or more by the time a mere 1% of money in the US tries to buy silver to protect itself from inflation.
Read the FULL ARTICLE
Money in US banks stands at about $18 trillion. If 1% of that money were to be spent on silver, it would be $180,000 million. But with only 700 million new oz. of silver mined each year, that implies a price of $257/oz. for silver, which would leave no silver left over for industry or the rest of the world. Since industry and the rest of the world will need silver, too, this implies that silver prices will hit about $500 oz. or more by the time a mere 1% of money in the US tries to buy silver to protect itself from inflation.
Read the FULL ARTICLE
The area around 42, very stout support level
"silver will now need to get back above 46.25 before we can begin to feel that the storm has passed, at least for now. " Turd Ferguson
2/5/2011 Silver Smackdown
Silver hammered down in Asia (holidays in large parts of Asia) almost $6 dollars (down 14%) in a matter of 12 minutes on thin volume so this is crazy stuff going on, and it's usually after hours because you have to remember that they ["paper manipulators" playing their games] don't want you to trade at these phony prices. They're shaking weak holders out of this market right now. Will it go lower? Well this is a manipulated game and you've got to take this market for what it is, and may want to see these dips as opportunity to accumulate more. Too bad for people in Asia right now.
SilverReport
SilverReport
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