Currency Wars, Silver, and QE3 [BY RUSS WINTER 12/22/2011 Financialsense.com]

The set up for silver looks like a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern consisting of three main phases:

1. A lead-in phase in which a lead-in trend line connecting the lows has a slope angle of about 30 degrees. Prices move in an orderly manner and the range of price oscillation defines the lead-in height between the lead-in trend line and the warning line which is parallel to the lead-in trend line.

2. A bump phase where, after prices cross above the warning line, excessive speculation kicks in and the bump phase starts with fast rising prices following a sharp trend line slope with 45 degrees or more until prices reach a bump height with at least twice the lead-in height. Once the second parallel line gets crossed over, it serves as a sell line.

3. A run phase in which prices break support from the lead-in trend line in a downhill run.

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Silver unable to sustain price rallies [From Trader Dan Norcini; Wednesday, December 28, 2011]

Silver has become the victim of the deflationary mindset trade with RISK AVERSION leading to a significant outflow of speculative money from the grey metal. I have said repeatedly that Silver will not go anywhere as long as INFLATIONARY FEARS are NOT foremost in traders' minds. 

Note the following Gold/Silver ratio chart which details this exact thing. This ratio began moving in favor of Silver only after the Federal Reserve first announced and then began its Quantitative Easing programs back in late 2008. You can see the line beginning a steady decline as Silver appreciated at a faster rate than Gold during rallies as well as holding its losses to a minimum compared to the Yellow Metal during any setbacks in prices for both metals.

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Is It Too Late To Buy Gold and Silver? - Mike Maloney [Dec 20, 2011]

SILVER ANALYSIS W/ DAVID MORGAN '$60 SILVER AND $2,500 GOLD FOR 2012' [VictoryIndependence 18/12/2011]

Silver Price Forecast: Where is the Silver Price Going? [HubertMoolman Dec 15 2011]

"One of the best video I've seen in 2011" SilverReport

Tfmetalsreport.com [Wednesday, December 14, 2011 at 3:55 pm EST UPDATE]

Silver Investment Update [VictoryIndependence on Dec 11, 201]

Silver well set up for another tilt at $50 and much higher [By: Peter Cooper 6 December, 2011]

When the IMF brought out its big guns to support the global banking system last week the tiny silver market was all but forgotten. We doubt it will be quiet for much longer.

Silver is a monetary metal. One Roman denarius sells for about $70 these days. You can still pick them up in the antiques centre here in Salisbury.

IMF union

Central banks of the world unite under the banner of the IMF and when it comes to governments and central banks it is hard to see whether the tail is wagging the dog or vice versa.

Marc Faber wrote almost a decade ago about the inevitability of money printing by central banks in his apocryphal book ‘Tomorrow’s Gold’ (and silver perhaps). He pointed out that it is all these institutions can do to meet any crisis, so they will always do it in the end.

Well that process has now happened. But you have to be very careful as an investor in an environment of monetary inflation. Price levels can be awfully deceptive.

The price of a cup of British Rail tea is now 7.5 times what it was in 1980 while silver still sells for less than it did that year. On the other hand, it is ten times more expensive than when Marc Faber wrote his book.

So silver has offered some of the best inflation protection in the past decade, although it was completely useless in this regard for the previous 20 years. What happens going forward?

We can see no reason for silver prices to stop inflating right at this point. On the contrary the same monetary expansion of the past decade is only gaining pace.

Central bank support

You would need to see the central banks jacking up interest rates to control inflation to get a fundamental sell signal for silver. It is just not happening and all we are seeing is silver price volatility in a rising market. Do not be deceived by that.

Yes there could well be another price dip but from what price level? Will silver shoot to $50 again as it did in April? Of course, the fundamentals are tremendous with the IMF leading the money printers.

The biggest risk is being out of this market. For once other investors catch on then the supply of silver is so tight that a real price breakout will occur and from there the price will go as high as speculators can make it go.

We still prefer silver above gold (click here) for the simple reason that silver does outperform in a precious metals boom. In the past three years we have seen the silver price triple while gold has only doubled, albeit silver is currently only double and therefore an even better buy!

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Louise Yamada - Special Gold & Silver Technical Update [kingworldnews December 6, 2011]

Silver spot price (SILV-31.97, see Figure 30) has been weaker than Gold, and the recent rally failed at the resistance of the broken support near 35.  If support at 30 fails to hold, Silver could be due to pull back toward the 2008 uptrend near 25, with the outside, worst case, possibility that even 20 (a full pullback to the multi-year breakout) could also occur.  The strong and swift 170% advance into 2011 followed by the 46% decline will also require time to repair, inclusive of price pullbacks. 

Notice that the weekly momentum model continues to decline (see arrow), suggesting potential further price attrition, or at least further sideways trading.  Here, too, the corrective behavior could carry into next year against dollar strength.  Eventually, were price able to move through 35-37, a challenge of 40 could again come into play, but we don’t see this over the near term. 

Louise Yamada

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Silver Market Update [From CliveMaund.com December 5th, 2011]

Superficially silver still looks pretty sick on the charts and weak compared to gold. However, the more closely you look at it, the more bullish the picture becomes. In the last update we had identified a potential Head-and-Shoulders top in silver on its 18-month chart, which would - and still could - become operative if Europe founders and the deflationary scenario prevails. However, the events of last week are evidence that a rescue is in its early stages, and that large scale money creation is on the way in order to faciliate this. This being so the potential H&S top looks set to abort, and there are some important indications that Smart Money has positioned itself for this.

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

The Silver Market Psychology & Inflation [Silverguru Nov 29, 2011]

James Turk - Bullish Flag Pattern to Quickly Send Silver to $70 [kingworldnews: November 28, 2011]

With gold, silver and stocks all moving strongly to the upside, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain to get his take on what is happening.  When asked about the action in gold and silver, Turk responded, “What a great way to start the week, Eric.  This move is going to catch a lot of people by surprise as evidenced by the extremely low sentiment readings.  Those low readings are a clear indication that there is a lot of money on the sidelines that is waiting to jump on board.”

James Turk continues:

“That money will come into the market like a tidal wave with just a little bit more upside progress.  Importantly, I think we are going to see more upside progress as we work toward the end of the year.  There are two important developments from a technical perspective.  

The first we have already spoken about, namely the bullish flag pattern on the weekly silver chart (above).  When silver breaks out to the upside, this flag measures to a target price of around $68 to $70.  More importantly, the jump out of the flag should happen more quickly than the $18 to $50 move we saw back in 2010 and early 2011, which took about nine months....

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Great Interview: TFMR Podcast #7 with Ted Butler [Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 7:51 pm]

Click Here to Listen to the Podcast

“Holy Jeepers,” Sprott to Buy $1.5B of Silver Bullion! [Posted by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul on Nov 22, 2011 Read more: http://www.beaconequity.com]

The silver price could explode higher in coming months.

As the silver and gold price predictably fade ahead of option expiration, JP Morgan’s bullion manipulation scheme could be headed for unprecedented problems, not from the record purchases of gold and silver from the Chinese, Indians or Russians, but from one Canadian billionaire.

Canadian-based Eric Sprott Management CEO Eric Sprott filed a follow up prospectus for the purchase of an additional $1.5 billion of silver bullion to cover expected demand for the company’s exchange traded fund, PSLV. 

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

James Turk "History Will Repeat Itself, $11,000 Gold 2013-2015 [Nov 23 2011; Victoryindependence]

Capital Account: Jim Rogers on QE3, MF Global and his Outlook for Gold (11/22/11)

Gold and Silver News Nov 20 2011: Imminent Collapse? [GoldMikeMaloney]

Silver Market Update [Clivemaund.com; November 20th, 2011]

We have had a major rethink since the last update was posted, which was one reason why no update was posted last weekend. This rethink has been occasioned by the rapid tilt towards deflation of the past couple of weeks. In the last update you may recall that we assumed that politicians and world leaders would follow the easiest route of QE which would lead in the direction of hyperinflation, but we really should know by now that you can't assume anything in this business. For sure, most of them would like to follow this route, for it buys them the maximum time before they end up at the end of a rope, but unfortunately for them they are losing control and things are starting to fall apart at alarming rate. Details of the latest thinking re the deflation/hyperinflation arguments are set out in the parallel Gold Market update, to which you are referred, and it will suffice here to give as examples of the tilt towards deflation the moves in the US to rein in the deficits and of course the spiking bond interest rates in Europe - if we do not see dramatic large scale intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB) involving a massive blast of QE, Europe will be finished shortly as a united economic entity, and after a possible temporary party to celebrate the demise of Europe, the US Treasury market will collapse.

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Silver Update Nov/19/11 - Mind Control [BrotherJohnF]

Interview with David Morgan--"MF Global Collapse Extremely Bullish for Bullion" Part 1 [TekoaDaSilva]

Silver $140 At Least? [Hubert Moolman Nov 4, 2011]

Why Buy Silver - Buying Silver In Times of Crisis [Nov 11, 2011]

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals [Nov 10, 2011]

TFMETALSREPORT.COM Sunday, November 6, 2011 at 4:59 pm [9:45 am EST UPDATE]

Silver Update NOV/6/11 - Margin Chagrin [BrotherJohnF]

Silver Market Update [originally published November 6th, 2011 Clivemaund.com]

Silver did what was expected of it last week, by reacting back to support in the $33.50 area, although it very briefly touched $32 intraday on Tuesday, and then, also as expected it bounced back. On the 4-month chart the action last week looks like a normal reaction, that may be a bull Flag, within a young uptrend that was signalled by the clear break above important resistance in the $33 area, which marked the top of the now completed intermediate base pattern.

Silver looks good here, and like it is preparing to break clear above the 50-day moving average, which is falling just above the price and currently acting as a constraining influence. The next upleg is expected to see it run at the more serious zone of resistance in the $37.80 - $39.50 area, which will be a bigger obstacle, as at this level it will run into supply from earlier buyers who were fleeced during the recent plunge and remain unnerved and ready to sell when they see prices improve.

READ MORE @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Chinese Silver Investment Going Parabolic [BY DAN COLLINS: NOV/01/2011 Financialsense.com]

When 1.3 Billion people start investing in something…you might want to pay attention.

Chinese investment in silver has exploded since last year, with the trading volume going exponential. The China Daily reported today that the trading volume of silver forwards on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China's only exchange for the precious metal, surged 751 percent year-on-year in 2010. Meanwhile, the volume in September of this year was more than six times that of the same period in 2010.

READ MORE @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Silver Market Update [originally published October 29th, 2011; Clivemaund.com]

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Ross Beaty: Silver the Schizoid Metal [Oct 27, 2011 CaseyResearch]

Now We're Cookin' [tfmetalsreport.com Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 9:49 pm]

Silver wants to tag along and I want to get excited about it. But I can't. Not yet. I have a last in the Dec11 silver contract of $33.21. This is great. This is wonderful. But this is only a start. Silver must trade through and close above $33.58 before we can get excited. Until then, it is still rangebound. At the top of the range, yes. But still rangebound. IF it can get through 33.58, the stage is set for a continued rally, back through 36, all the way to 37 and beyond. Maybe even $39. It will be possible to make quite of bit of fiat trading a rally from 34 to 39. Be patient. Don't act in haste. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

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Silver Market Update [originally published October 23rd, 2011 Clive Maund]

Over the past week silver has behaved as predicted in the last update, breaking down from its potential Pennant pattern and dropping gently back towards support in the $29 - $30 area, to enter our "accumulation zone" shown on its 4-month chart which turned it higher on Friday, and while the pattern could still be a bear Pennant with an amended lower boundary this is looking considerably less likely - it looks like the Pennant has aborted. It is thus thought that we are late in the base building process

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

The Great Silver Debate - Manipulation: Fact or Fiction? - GATA vs. CPM Group [Oct 21, 2011]

Last Chance to Own Silver at These Prices [Wealth Wire - Thursday, October 20th, 2011]

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (The Cartel) on Tuesday approved a much-debated, long-delayed rule designed to curb bets on oil, gold, sugar and in particular silver.

CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said the limits will protect the markets. The 3-2 vote—cast along party lines—illustrates how divided regulators remain over the role of government in the markets. The debate leading up to the vote also shows how even some CFTC commissioners supporting the rule think it may not have the desired effect.

Opposed by Wall Street and in particular JP Morgan Bank the rule aimed at capping the positions firms can take in certain commodity contracts in order to curb sharp price increases. The rule gained traction in Congress during a silver price spike in 2011, which some attributed to excessive speculation by short-term traders. Along with a number of other rules, it was mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial-regulatory overhaul.

So finally position limits in silver will be enforced. Will there be delays? Of course and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Cartel will be out in force with their lawyers challenging the ruling. However, there is a very high probability that on a beautiful day in 2012, JPM, et al will finally be feed of its shackles and the price of silver will move dramatically higher.

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Eric Sprott, Financial Sense NewsHour 19 Oct 2011

Every Silver Pullback Is A Gift - Mike Maloney [Oct 18, 2011]

Silver Update OCT/16/11 - Bottoming [BrotherJohnF]

KWN Special - Is Silver the Next Apple? [kingworldnews.com ;October 18, 2011]

The following information was put together exclusively for the King World News blog by Kevin Wides, out of Switzerland.  It is a fascinating comparison between the bull move in Apple shares and silver bullion.  Kevin stated, “With everyone talking about Steve Job’s death and the wonderful investment Apple shares have been, a closer look shows how hard it is to catch a trend over the long run.  I still believe in the silver story, and one can see what it takes to hold on to long-term positions [throughout an entire bull market].”   


READ MORE @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

One last sell-off for silver before we head back to $50? [By: Peter Cooper -- Posted 16 October, 2011]

After seven years of investing in precious metals you become something of an old-hand, not that this would impress the true veterans who recall the late 1970s. They are getting a bit old themselves now.

A sprightly 87-year old President Carter was on the BBC last night for a long interview, and sounded very impressive unless you are old enough to remember his abysmal presidency.

The man himself comes across as a bit of a 60s dreamer with flowers in his hair and peace and love stamped on his face. He is very genuine and has not made a cent out of being an ex-president. But he was a disaster, hopelessly out of his depth in Washington during a period when the world needed leadership.

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Fiat Money Explained [TheSilverGuild on Oct 16, 2011]

Silver on the Verge of Another Breakout [By: CHRIS MARCHESE OCT/14/2011]

Silver appears extremely bullish from a structural point of view, something that myself and others have been talking about the last 12-14 months. We first saw this in the vast reduction in the adjusted open interest (reference to spread positions) by about half followed by 2 monster rallies beginning in Sept 2010 and again in February 2011. From personal experience, gauging physical investment demand, paper (ETF) demand, shape of the futures curve and the Commitment of Traders report, silver will likely see a monster rally to at least the $40-$43 area before year end and possibly a breakout pushing the $50 level. In any case, Silver would be the one commodity I would want to own for the next 12-24 months.


Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Silver Market Update [originally published October 9th, 2011; Clive Maund]

It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way silver has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows.

On silver's 4-month chart it is now apparent that a bear Pennant has been forming since the panic bottom, with the weak upside volume portending an imminent breakdown and steep drop. A reader pointed out to me during last week that silver's panic lows occurred in thin trading on the Hong Kong market, and for this reason we do not have to factor in the tail of the "Dragonfly Doji" candlestick shown on the chart when deciding where to draw the boundaries of the Pennant. The measuring implications of this Pennant call for a drop at least to the vicinity of the intraday lows of the Dragonfly Doji and possibly somewhat lower towards the $24 area - at this point the decline should have completely run its course and we will be looking to buy aggressively. We can see that a bearish "Harami" pattern has formed in silver over the past 2 trading days, implying that breakdown from the Pennant and the expected steep drop that will follow is imminent. A reason why this next drop should end the decline is that silver is already deeply oversold as shown by its MACD indicator, and it will of course be even more so after this impending decline. Those interested in going long silver investments in the near future should "keep their powder dry" but stand ready to wade in big time if silver drops into the bright green "aggressive accumulation zone" shown on our chart.

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Is Silver Breaking Out Of Bottom? [Sat OCT/08/11 00:22 AM EST -- Debra Borchardt]

Silver Update OCT/06/11 - Buy The Dips [BrotherJohnF]

Silver Market Update; originally published October 2nd, 2011 [Clive Maund http://www.clivemaund.com]

Following our highly successful foray into the future to see what would happen to the silver price, many readers have been urging me to clamber back into my time machine and go Back to the Future to see what is going is to happen in the next few weeks. However, on this occasion I have decided not to. It was not concern about disrupting the space-time continuum, or even a sudden attack of moral rectitude concerning looking at charts 3 weeks before other people get a chance to see them, but the simple fact that it isn't necessary. You see, we have all the evidence that we require in the here and now that silver has probably bottomed, or is very close to doing so, and that it is set to enter another advancing phase shortly. Let's now look at this evidence.

On silver's year-to-date chart we can see how the brutal plunge that wiped out many leveraged small silver speculators, and which enabled us to make a fortune in a matter of days, abruptly terminated at the zone of support shown in Far East markets on Monday, after which silver rallied to close the day almost at its highs, leaving behind a large very bullish "Dragonfly Doji" on its chart which we will look at a little later on the 3-month chart. The ferocity of the decline is thought to be partly or even largely due to a wave of margin calls going out to leveraged small speculators, who had been set up to be fleeced by their cheerleaders egging them on for weeks, having apparently learnt nothing from the May plunge just a few months earlier.

READ MORE @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Market Crash 2011: Gold Down $122! Silver Down $6.66! Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime Coming!! [Sep 23, 2011]

Silver traders: Stop Cryin' and Start Buyin'! [By: Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul] 23 September, 2011

As another financial crisis comes to a head, another silver crash ensues.  Oh, the tears of sorrow!

Background:

Though there still exists economists, portfolio strategists and corporate CEOs out there who still don't see or admit to seeing a double-dip coming to America [did you watch CNBC yesterday?], everyone's favorite sleaze, George Soros, on Sept. 21, told—that very same 24-hour propaganda doubly-sleaze outfit—CNBC, that the US is in “a double dip already.” 

Sometimes, Soros, too, tells the truth, as long as it alines well with his fascist global-community agenda.

But if you've been listening to John Williams of shadowstats.com, you'd already know the fake recovery was just that, fake, and that the worse days for the US are yet to come.

“As activity begins to turn down again, you are going to see things get even worse, and the continued economic trouble is going to be very long and very deep,” Williams told KWN on July 11.  “That puts the Fed in a circumstance where you virtually are assured of a quantitative easing three. That in turn will weaken the US dollar further.”

But as we all know, Bernanke, instead of giving the market what it perceived it needed on Wednesday, crushed the dollar slide, instead.  No QE3!  Not today, anyway.  But Williams will most assuredly be proved correct after the fight from Republicans on Capitol Hill turns Captain Queeg 'yellow stain' as it did during Speaker Newt Gingrich's 1995 noble fight to turn the money spigots off by shutting down the Treasury-Fed cabal. 

At some point, the mob will beg for QE3!  Ask Gingrich, who went from Time's Man of the Year to the bum who authored the 'Contract ON America” —which leads us to today's Fed puzzle.

READ MORE @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Louise Yamada - Still Bullish Gold & Silver, Not Stocks [kingworldnews September 20, 2011]

When asked about silver specifically Yamada replied, “Silver has been trying to consolidate above the uptrend.  You have some support at $37, you also have the 200 day moving average at $36 and then, of course, you’ve got the prior lows at $33 to $34.   Whether or not silver has to pull back that far isn’t clear yet, but both gold and silver are in some kind of healthy consolidation.”

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Silver Chart Update [Trader Dan Norcini Friday, September 16, 2011]

Silver continues to hold very firm at the horizontal red line drawn in on the price chart. Each time it has moved down to this level, a level which I might add is the intersection of TWO important support levels, it has drawn out solid buying and then moved higher. This region is a former congestion zone which seems to attract buyers and forces shorts to cover. The longer this impasse continues, the better for the bulls as it is basically base-building here.

ORIGINAL SOURCE

GOLD AND SILVER TECHNICAL UPDATES 16 SEP 2011 [Ira Epstein]

Turd Ferguson's: TF Metals Report [Silver Update: Thursday, September 15, 2011 at 9:51 am]

Kitco Audio: Marshall Berol and Al See No Long Term Downward Movement In Gold and Silver [Sep 14, 2011]

Silver getting ready for a breakout [By JON and DON VIALOUX, Technical Analysis; Financial Post September 14, 2011]

The period of seasonal strength in silver is approaching. How is the seasonal trade lining up this year?

Equityclock.com notes that the period of seasonal strength for silver during the past 20 years has been from Sept. 16 to April 11. The "sweet spot" is from the end of October to the end of February. The trade has been profitable in 14 of the past 16 periods including 10 of the past 10 periods. Average return per period during the past 10 periods was 22.9%.

Seasonality in silver is influenced by an increase in industrial demand during its period of seasonal strength. About 40% of silver is used industrially - in solar batteries, water purification systems, cellphones, circuit boards, plasma televisions and radio frequency indentification devices (RFIDs).

Read more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Silver Update 13th Sept 2011 - Bottleneck [BrotherJohnF]

Silver Has Been The Clear Winner by: edegrootinsights.blogspot.com [TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2011]

Chart posted by Bespoke Investment Group

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Silver is set for an even greater upward run than gold [cnbusinessnews.com, Sept 11 2011]

Urs Gmuer, asset manager at Dolefin, a Swiss investment advice firm said silver is set for an even greater upward run than gold, with the market due to correct a distortion in its pricing of silver in relation to gold.

Gold and silver currently price at a ratio of around 45:1. However, Gmuer said declining silver output over the last 60 years—as a result of inventory depletion and mine closures—meant silver supplies currently outnumber gold by a ratio of less than 10:1, thus indicating a market correction is due.

Once this occurs, Gmuer said that silver prices would settle at 10 percent to 15 percent of gold. This implies that if gold reaches $6,200 per ounce, silver will peak at between $620 and $930 per ounce.

 

Gmuer added that markets for all precious metals were benefiting from the surge in demand for commodities, food, and energy from developing countries.

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Eric Sprott: Financial Train Wreck Coming Soon! Got Gold? Better Yet, Got Silver? [ Lorimer Wilson,Tuesday, September 6, 2011]

We have a financial system that’s on the edge of a cliff here. People have to be in precious metals if they want to protect themselves. Everyone who’s an investor has money. They have it invested in some paper instrument and when they realise they have a problem with their money in a bank or owning some government note the demand for gold could just be overwhelming! It could be parabolic all of a sudden. Currently, only 0.75% of the world’s financial assets are in gold so just imagine what a 5% to 10% interest in gold would mean for its price. On top of that, I believe that silver will get back into a 16:1 ratio to gold in three to five years for sure so that means that silver is going to have a great upside potential. Got gold? Better yet, got silver?


READ more @ ORIGINAL SOURCE

Ben Davies - Silver Headed to $65 & Gold to Soar [kingworldnews September 6, 2011]

When asked about silver specifically Davies responded, “Silver, we actually have a sensitivity to silver at the moment, we’re quite partial to it.  We think the price action has been very solid.  Since the $50 level it has been acquiescing sideways, but considering the other industrial elements have done very poorly vs gold, silver has really held in well.  

I really believe that we are nearing the beginning of a third wave higher.  We are creating that type of pattern where we are really going to start accelerating higher over the next quarter.  Silver will take out the $50 highs and will go pushing into the mid 60’s.”

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